Former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) and Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) are in a statistical tie in the race for governor of Bahia, Brazil's fourth most populous state. A Quaest poll released on Thursday (27) puts Neto at 39% of voting intentions and Jerônimo, who is seeking reelection, at 37%, according to Folha de S.Paulo and InfoMoney.

The remaining candidates trail far behind. Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL), Ariel Capistrano (DC), Aroldo Felix (UP) and Maria Bona (PCO) each scored 1%. Blank and null votes plus abstentions add up to 8%, while 12% of Bahia voters say they are undecided.

The survey was commissioned by TV Bahia and registered with the Electoral Court under number BA-06206/2026. Quaest interviewed 900 voters in person between Sunday (23) and Wednesday (26). The margin of error is three percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level.

Runoff scenario also tied

In a simulated runoff, the picture holds. Neto leads Jerônimo 44% to 41%, Folha reports, with 9% undecided and 6% saying they would cast a blank or null ballot. In the previous poll, released on July 27, the former mayor had 43% against the governor's 39% in that same scenario.

In the Senate race, where Bahia voters will pick two names this year, former governor Rui Costa (PT) leads with 23% of mentions across both seats. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT) has 17%, followed by former minister João Roma (PL) with 7% and Senator Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) with 5%. Blank and null votes total 20% and undecided voters 22%, according to InfoMoney.

The first round of Brazil's general election is set for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, Neto and Jerônimo will face off in a runoff on October 25.