The BBC News Brasil poll tracker, which compiles surveys registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for the presidential race, now reflects the tightest picture of the 2026 campaign. A Meio/Ideia poll released on Wednesday (9) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) numerically ahead in the first round, with 38.4% of voter intentions, against 37.3% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The 1.1-point gap falls within the 2.5-point margin of error, a technical tie.
In a runoff between the two, Meio/Ideia has them dead even at 46% each. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 3.5% in that scenario, and 4.5% of respondents were undecided.
Pollsters split on the gap
The individual surveys gathered by the BBC show a clear divide among polling firms. Veritá, which interviewed 3,840 voters between September 1 and 4, is the only one with Flávio ahead in the first round, 38.9% to 38.4%. Nexus has Lula up 39% to 35% and 39% to 34% in its two scenarios, Datafolha measures 38% to 33% and 39% to 32%, and Quaest puts the race at 36% to 29%. The tracker also follows the rise of writer Augusto Cury (Avante), who ranges from 6.6% to 12.2% across the compiled polls.
In simulated runoffs against other contenders, Meio/Ideia gives Lula 46% against 40.3% for Renan Santos (Missão), 38% for Romeu Zema (Novo) and 40.9% for Cury. Against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the 46% to 42% score is also a technical tie. On rejection, Lula still posts the highest figure among presidential candidates: 46.6% of voters say they would not vote for him, against 45.7% for Flávio.
Meio/Ideia interviewed 1,500 people between September 4 and 7. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points in either direction, and the survey is registered with the TSE as BR-07935/2026.
The next test comes on Thursday (10), when AtlasIntel releases a poll covering the runoff, rejection rates and voter confidence in 13 policy areas, according to InfoMoney. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the runoff takes place on October 25.