Voters who identify as anti-Bolsonaro are the most willing to consult the government programs of presidential candidates. That is the finding of an exclusive breakdown of the BTG/Nexus poll published on Friday (28) by columnist Mônica Bergamo in Folha de S.Paulo. In that group, 68% say they intend to seek information about the candidates' electoral proposals.

According to Folha, the breakdown defines anti-Bolsonaro voters as those who plan to vote for President Lula (PT), who is seeking a fourth term, in order to keep Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, from winning. The government-program figure was published only by Folha. Other outlets that covered the poll, released on Monday (24), did not detail that breakdown.

The survey was conducted by the Nexus institute by telephone between August 21 and 23, with 2,006 voters across the country's 27 federation units. The margin of error is two percentage points. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's electoral authority, under code BR-09028/2026, according to CartaCapital.

A tight race between Lula and Flávio

The same poll shows the two main rivals in a technical tie, both in vote simulations and in rejection rates. According to Congresso em Foco, 49% of respondents say they would never vote for Lula, while 48% say the same about Flávio Bolsonaro. In a runoff simulation, the president has 46% of voting intentions and the senator, 45%. Another 8% would cast a blank or null ballot or vote for neither, and 1% did not answer.

In the first round, CartaCapital reports Lula with 41% of voting intentions, against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the main scenario. With Pablo Marçal (PRTB) in the race, the figures are 40% and 34%. Marçal registered his candidacy despite being ineligible.

The TSE has registered 13 presidential candidacies, according to G1. The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins an absolute majority of valid votes, a runoff will be held on October 25.