Incumbent governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans party holds 55.2% of voter support in his reelection bid in São Paulo, Brazil's most populous state, against 41% for Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party (PT), a former finance minister and former mayor of the city of São Paulo. The figures come from an AtlasIntel poll released on Wednesday, Sept. 23, in partnership with the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo. At that level, Tarcísio would win outright in the first round.

The poll interviewed 1,800 voters online, through random digital recruitment, between Sept. 15 and 20. It has a two-percentage-point margin of error, a 95% confidence level and is registered with the electoral court under protocols SP-02676 and BR-08437/2026. Counting only valid ballots, Tarcísio reaches 57.1% against 42.4% for Haddad, as reported by CartaCapital.

The governor's lead has widened since the previous round of the survey, released on Sept. 3, when he had 51.1% to Haddad's 39.9%. Both candidates grew, by 4.1 points and 1.1 point respectively, and the gap moved from 11.2 to 14.2 points. In a runoff, Tarcísio would take 55.6% against 41.7%.

No other candidate reaches 1%. Vivian Mendes (UP) and Carlos Machado (PCB) polled below that mark, and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) registered zero, according to Estadão. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 2.6%, with 0.7% undecided.

The presidential race in São Paulo

The same poll measured the presidential contest in the state. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads with 45.1% to 39.8% for President Lula (PT). In runoff scenarios reported by Estadão, Lula loses to Flávio, 42.8% to 48.8%, and to Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), 42.1% to 47.2%. He trails Romeu Zema (Novo) and Augusto Cury (Avante) numerically, though tied with both within the margin of error, and beats only Renan Santos (Missão), 43.5% to 38.9%.

The first round of Brazil's general election is on Oct. 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two face a runoff on Oct. 25.