Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is numerically ahead of President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) in a runoff scenario for Brazil's presidential election. The latest AtlasIntel poll, commissioned by Bloomberg and released on Thursday (17), gives the senator 47.2% against 46.8% for the incumbent, who is running for reelection. With a one-percentage-point margin of error, the scenario is a technical tie. Among valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, Flávio has 50.2% and Lula 49.8%.
Lula still leads the first round, with 44.1% of voter intentions against 41.7% for Flávio. The gap has narrowed, though. It stood at 5.6 points in the previous round, when the president had 43% and the senator 37.4%. The survey shows Flávio gained five points between the two rounds. Augusto Cury (Avante) fell to 3.5%, and Renan Santos (Missão) stands at 5.1%.
AtlasIntel interviewed 5,018 voters online through random digital recruitment between September 11 and 16. The margin of error is one percentage point in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-06221/2026. The same round puts approval of the Lula government at 45.4%, against 53.6% disapproval.
Where each candidate is strongest
The regional and demographic breakdowns show distinct bases. Lula leads in the Northeast (57.2% to 33.1%), among women (52.7% to 35.1%) and among Catholics (50.6% to 38.8%). Flávio dominates in the North (63% to 32.3%), among men (49.3% to 34.2%) and among evangelical voters (62.7% to 21.5%). In the Southeast, the PL candidate has 42.9% against the president's 40.8%. In the Center-West, the two are technically tied at 46.3% to 45.8%.
The Futura poll
A second survey, by Futura Inteligência, released the same morning by CNN Brasil, points the same way. In the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48.1% and Lula 43.7%. The 4.4-point difference falls within the poll's 2.2-point margin of error, another technical tie. The institute interviewed 2,000 voters by phone between September 11 and 15, using its own funds, and the poll is registered with the TSE under number BR-00749/2026. In alternative scenarios, Lula also appears technically tied with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Augusto Cury.
Other pollsters still show the president with a wider first-round lead. According to a roundup by Band, September surveys by Quaest, Datafolha and BTG/Nexus put Lula between five and seven points ahead. The first round takes place on October 4, 17 days from now. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two face a runoff on October 25.