President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party leads Brazil's presidential race with 45.8% of first-round voting intentions, against 43.4% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, according to an AtlasIntel poll released on Wednesday (23). In a runoff, the two are statistically tied at 47.7% to 47.4%. The 0.3-point gap falls inside the survey's margin of error of one percentage point.

Both candidates grew from the previous round of the same poll, released on September 17. According to figures reported by CartaCapital, Lula rose from 44.1% to 45.8% and Flávio Bolsonaro from 41.7% to 43.4%. Every other name lost ground. Congressman Renan Santos of the Missão party fell from 5.1% to 4.5%, and Augusto Cury of Avante dropped from 3.5% to 2.1%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 1.3% and Romeu Zema (Novo) has 0.9%. The remaining candidates add up to 0.8%. Blank and spoiled ballots reach 0.7%, and 0.5% did not answer.

Runoff scenarios

The pollster tested five head-to-head races. Lula wins four and ties the fifth, the one against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. In that matchup, blank and spoiled ballots plus undecided voters add up to 4.9%. The figures were reported by Poder360:

• Lula 47.7% to Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4%;
• Lula 47.6% to Romeu Zema 42.2%;
• Lula 46.6% to Ronaldo Caiado 44%;
• Lula 46.2% to Augusto Cury 39.4%;
• Lula 46.5% to Renan Santos 31.2%.

Bloomberg Línea, which commissioned the survey with Bloomberg News, says the result shows little change from last week's poll, which already pointed to a technical tie.

Method and context

AtlasIntel interviewed 5,015 people between September 17 and 22 through online questionnaires. The margin of error is one percentage point, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the electoral court under number BR-04739/2026. According to Poder360, it cost R$ 75,000 and was paid by the pollster with its own funds.

Bloomberg Línea reports that the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court weighs on both candidates. Flávio Bolsonaro gained ground after reports linked court justices to Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master who is jailed at the center of a bank fraud investigation. The senator, who is running for president, tries to tie the scandal to Lula. He denies any wrongdoing and is a target of a Federal Police investigation into money laundering, corruption and tax evasion related to his ties to Vorcaro. Lula, who is seeking another term, raised payments of Bolsa Família, the government's main cash-transfer program, last week.

The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate passes 50% of valid votes, the runoff takes place three weeks later, on October 25. Polls measure voting intentions at the time they are taken and are not predictions of the outcome.