President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 51.6% of voter intentions in the state of Ceará for the first round of Brazil's presidential election, against 25.7% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), an AtlasIntel poll released on Friday (September 4) shows, one month before the vote. The president's lead in the state stands at 25.9 percentage points.
In a head-to-head runoff, Lula reaches 54.6% in Ceará against 30.1% for the senator from Rio de Janeiro, a gap of 24.5 points. Blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters add up to 15.3%. The institute also tested three alternative runoffs, and the president stays above 54% in all of them: 54.3% to 29.7% against former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), 54.8% to 27.5% against former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) and 54.5% to 24.8% against Renan Santos (Missão).
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante) ranks third in the state with 12.3%, followed by Renan Santos (Missão) with 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 1.6% and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 0.7%. Hertz Dias (PSTU) polls 0.1%. Clariana Barão (DC), Samara Martins (UP) and veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrata) register no votes. Blank or spoiled votes total 1%, and 3.7% of respondents say they do not know.
A wider gap than the national race
The state numbers diverge from the national race. In the most recent Datafolha survey, run by the institute of the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, Lula has 38% of first-round intentions against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the two are in a technical tie in a runoff, meaning a difference within the margin of error. In Ceará, a state in Brazil's Northeast, the distance between them reaches nearly 26 points.
How the poll was conducted
AtlasIntel interviewed 1,834 voters in Ceará between August 28 and September 2, using random digital recruitment. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil's top electoral court, under protocol BR-07411/2026. According to Poder360, the study cost 55,000 reais and was paid for by the company Focus Comunicação e Mídia, which explains the Atlas/Focus branding. CNN Brasil, which also published the numbers, reports the poll was carried out with the institute's own funds.
The same survey shows an opposite picture in the race for governor of Ceará. Ciro Gomes has 48% of first-round intentions against 45% for Governor Elmano de Freitas, who is running for reelection, according to CartaCapital. UOL classified the difference as a technical tie in both rounds.
The first round of the election is scheduled for October 4. A possible runoff takes place on October 25.