Writer Augusto Cury, the Avante party candidate in Brazil's presidential race, has crossed the 10% mark in voting intention polls and taken third place, ahead of former governors Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo). According to the newspaper Gazeta do Povo, seven polling firms released surveys in the past week that captured his rise. The first round of the election is scheduled for October 4.
In the Quaest poll released on September 2, commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and broadcaster Globo, President Lula, who is running for reelection, leads with 37%, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 29% and Cury with 10%. Caiado and Zema stood at 1% each. In the institute's previous survey, on August 14, Cury had 2%, though the two rounds are not fully comparable because the PRTB slot changed candidates. The margin of error is two percentage points.
Other pollsters show the same trend. Real Time Big Data, which surveyed 2,000 people by phone between August 27 and 31, put Cury at 11% in its September 1 poll, behind Lula (38%) and Flávio (30%), and noted growth already detected by the Nexus and AtlasIntel polls released on August 31. The PoderData institute gave Cury 10% on September 3, with Lula (37%) and Flávio (34%) in a statistical tie, according to Gazeta do Povo.
What is driving the surge
Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest and a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, credits the rise to Cury's performance among independent voters.
"In this segment, the Avante candidate already reaches 24% and is numerically ahead of Lula."
In the same poll, Cury has the lowest rejection rate among the leading candidates: 25% of voters say they know him and would not vote for him, compared with 55% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 53% for Lula. For the first time, Quaest tested Cury in a runoff scenario, in which Lula wins 40% to 34%, with 21% of blank or spoiled ballots or voters who say they will not vote. In the unaided survey, where candidates' names are not read out, Cury gets 4%.
Rising with the least TV time
The growth comes with the smallest campaign structure in the race. Avante holds only seven seats in the Chamber of Deputies, which means less television ad time and less campaign money, Gazeta do Povo reports. Lula has the most TV time of any candidate, at 5 minutes 32 seconds. UOL described Cury's campaign events, where a funk-beat jingle, "Cury é a cura!" ("Cury is the cure"), plays again and again, and noted his trademark label as the "gestor da emoção", or manager of emotions.
Cury's support remains the softest in the race: 48% of his voters say they could still change their choice by October 4, against 20% of Lula's voters and 25% of Flávio's, according to Quaest. The next test is the presidential debate set for September 14, whose organizers are pressing Lula and Flávio to confirm their attendance. The Superior Electoral Court approved the six presidential tickets on September 3, and a new Quaest round is due on Monday, September 7.