Brazil's trade balance posted a surplus of US$7.7 billion in September, up 146% from the same month of 2025, when the positive balance was US$3.1 billion. The figures were released on Tuesday (6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), the federal agency that tracks foreign trade. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the result beat market expectations: a Reuters poll had forecast a surplus of US$7.2 billion.
The surplus came from rising exports combined with falling imports. Sales abroad totaled US$34.4 billion in the month, a 12.9% increase year on year, while purchases of foreign goods fell 2.4% to US$26.7 billion, according to the MDIC.
On the supply side, oil was September's standout. Crude oil exports rose 77.3% in the month, according to ministry data reported by G1. Unroasted coffee and soybeans also advanced, at a slower pace. On the demand side, China remains the largest buyer, with US$7.9 billion in purchases in the month, but it fell 7.6%, dragged down by beef. Sales to the European Union jumped 60.1% to US$6.95 billion, and shipments to the United States rose 31.9% to US$3.5 billion. Even so, Brazil still buys more from the U.S. than it sells: imports from the United States reached US$4.4 billion in September.
Year-to-date figures and the 2026 outlook
In the first nine months of the year, the accumulated surplus is US$62.4 billion. Exports total US$284.65 billion in the period, up 10.4% on a daily average basis, while imports stand at US$222.26 billion, up 5%, the government said.
Despite the strong September result, the MDIC cut its 2026 surplus forecast from US$90 billion to US$84.4 billion. According to Folha, the projected balance would still be 24% higher than the US$68.1 billion recorded in 2025.
For farmers and the oil and gas industry, the numbers confirm firm demand, with Europe gaining ground as a destination for Brazilian shipments. For consumers, the effect is indirect: export dollars flowing in tend to hold the exchange rate steady, which feeds into the price of imported goods and of inputs priced in U.S. currency.