US$2.8 trillion. That is the size Brazil's economy is expected to reach in 2027, according to a projection released this week by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The figure, roughly R$14.65 trillion in local currency, would lift Brazil from 10th to 8th place in the ranking of the world's largest economies, overtaking Italy and Russia.
In practice, moving up the ranking does not put money directly into anyone's pocket. But it works as a gauge of the weight the Brazilian economy carries globally, something that shapes everything from foreign investors' decisions to the cost of the country's borrowing. For comparison, the projected increase over 2026, about US$145 billion, is more than half of everything Russia is expected to produce in the period.
According to Agência Brasil, which reported the figures from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, Brazil ends 2026 in 10th place, with an estimated gross domestic product (GDP, the total value of goods and services a country produces) of US$2.655 trillion. The last time Brazil held 8th place was 2017. Under the IMF projection, the country keeps the position through 2031, the final year covered by the study.
How the ranking works
The ranking is based on nominal GDP converted into US dollars. Nominal GDP is measured at current prices, without discounting inflation. That means a country can climb the table even while growing slowly, if local inflation or a stronger currency raises the dollar value of its output.
That is exactly the case with Brazil's projected advance. SBT News points out that the IMF expects growth of only 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, below the 2.3% recorded in 2025. The forecast also falls short of the 2.46% growth rate the federal government used when drafting the 2027 budget.
This is how the top 10 would look in 2027, according to the IMF:
- United States: US$34.44 trillion
- China: US$22.94 trillion
- Germany: US$5.66 trillion
- India: US$4.52 trillion
- United Kingdom: US$4.49 trillion
- Japan: US$4.47 trillion
- France: US$3.65 trillion
- Brazil: US$2.80 trillion
- Italy: US$2.77 trillion
- Russia: US$2.68 trillion
The gap between Brazil and Italy, about US$30 billion, amounts to just over 1% of Brazil's projected GDP. The distance to the leader remains vast: the American economy will be more than 12 times Brazil's in 2027, in the Fund's projections.
Another highlight of the report is India, which jumps from 6th to 4th place, passing the United Kingdom and Japan, and is expected to take 3rd place from Germany by 2031. The United States and China stay in the top two spots, in that order, throughout the projected period. In 2029, according to SBT News, Brazil's nominal GDP should cross the US$3 trillion mark for the first time.
On Brazil's best historical performance, the sources differ. Agência Brasil says 7th place, reached in 1995 and from 2010 to 2014, is the country's ceiling in the ranking. SBT News recalls that in 2011, after a decade of growth, a strong real and high commodity prices, Brazil was considered the world's 6th largest economy, before slipping back to 7th in 2012.