President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the incumbent seeking a fourth term, leads Brazil's presidential race with 39% of first-round voting intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, dropped four points, from 37% to 33%, in the new BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (Aug. 31). Writer Augusto Cury jumped from 2% to 11% and took third place alone.
Lula had 41% in the previous wave of the tracking poll, commissioned by the investment bank BTG Pactual from pollster Nexus, so he slipped two points. According to VEJA magazine, this was the first wave after the first televised debate, the candidates' interviews on the Jornal Nacional evening news and the start of free campaign airtime on radio and TV. In the spontaneous poll, where no list of names is offered, Lula has 37%, Flávio 30% and Cury rose from 1% to 8%. Undecided voters fell from 15% to 13%.
Technical tie in a runoff
In a hypothetical runoff, Lula has 46% and Flávio 45%, as reported by Poder360. The one-point gap sits within the two-percentage-point margin of error, a technical tie. Rejection remains highest for both frontrunners: 50% of voters say they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, and 49% say the same about Lula.
In a first-round scenario that includes Pablo Marçal (PRTB), Lula has 37% and Flávio 31%. Behind the top three, Ronaldo Caiado follows with 5%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema and Samara Martins with 1% each, VEJA reported.
Government disapproval rises to 51%
Disapproval of Lula's government rose from 49% to 51%, while approval fell from 48% to 46%. The five-point gap between the two indicators is the widest since May in the poll series. Among respondents who disapprove, 62% point to dissatisfaction with the results of the administration's policies, works and laws as the main reason, and 20% say they reject Lula's ideas.
Nexus interviewed 2,005 voters between Aug. 28 and 30. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08900/2026 and was paid for by BTG Pactual. The first round is scheduled for Oct. 4; if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the runoff takes place on Oct. 25.