President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Brazil's presidential race with 39% of voter intentions in the first round, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds 34%, according to a BTG/Nexus poll released on Tuesday (8). The gap between the two frontrunners stands at five percentage points. In the firm's previous survey conducted last week, Lula registered 37% against 31% for Bolsonaro.

The pollster tested two first-round scenarios because of ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB). In the scenario excluding Marçal, Lula remains at 39% while Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 35%, narrowing the gap to four points. In that same simulation a week earlier, Bolsonaro registered 33%.

Author Augusto Cury (Avante) placed third with 9% support across both scenarios. That marks a two-point decrease from the 11% he scored in the previous survey. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Free Brazil Movement leader Renan Santos (Missão party) received 4% each in both test ballots.

Pablo Marçal drew 3% in the ballot containing his name, followed by former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) at 2%. Samara Martins (UP) received 1% in both simulations, while Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) reached 1% only in the field without Marçal. In a head-to-head second-round simulation, the poll found a statistical tie, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 45%.

The dual testing reflects a pending decision in Brazil's highest election court. Marçal is barred from running until 2032 under an ineligibility ruling, but secured a preliminary injunction from a São Paulo electoral court to register his ticket. The plenary of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is scheduled to rule on the final validity of his registration ahead of the election.