President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would beat Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by 47.3% to 40% in a runoff of Brazil's presidential race, according to a new CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday (15). Lula, who is seeking reelection, leads the first-round simulation with 40.5% of voting intentions, against 30.4% for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, a 10-point lead. Blank and spoiled votes add up to 10.2% in the head-to-head scenario, and 2.5% of respondents say they are undecided.
The survey was commissioned by CNT, Brazil's national transport confederation, and carried out by pollster MDA. It interviewed 2,002 voters in person between September 9 and 13. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points either way, and the poll is registered with electoral authorities under code BR-06902/2026.
The lead narrowed
Compared with the institute's August round, Lula slipped from 48% to 47.3% while Flavio rose from 39.1% to 40%, CartaCapital reported. The runoff gap fell from about nine points to 7.3, a shift that stayed within the margin of error. Since June, the president has lost three points in the runoff scenario and the senator has gained three, according to Exame.
The first-round score also tightened. Lula polled 42.4% in August and now has 40.5%; Flavio went from 28.7% to 30.4%. Augusto Cury (Avante) ranks third with 6%, statistically tied with the candidates behind him.
The poll tested four other runoff pairings. Lula would win against Augusto Cury by 45.3% to 38.4%, against former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) by 46.4% to 37.3%, against Renan Santos (Missao) by 47.3% to 33.9% and against former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) by 47.7% to 34.5%. The scenario against Renan Santos has the highest share of blank and spoiled votes, 15.7%.
The round contrasts with a week of conflicting surveys. The Quaest poll, published on Monday (14), put Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in a runoff for the first time, while Indexa showed the two tied in the direct matchup. The first round is set for October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff.