Almost seven in ten Brazilian voters, 67%, say the crisis at the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF), the country's top court, does not change their vote for president, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (14). The institute interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 and over across Brazil between September 10 and 13. The survey was commissioned by Globo together with the newspaper O Globo.
Asked whether the crisis influences their presidential vote, 22% said it reinforces the choice they have already made and 7% said they would consider changing candidates. Another 4% did not know or did not answer. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03607/2026.
The reinforcement concentrates on the right
The numbers shift with political affiliation. Among self-declared supporters of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 84% say the crisis does not affect their vote and only 3% would consider switching candidates. Among the non-Lulist left, 76% report no impact and 12% could change their choice. Independent voters, one third of the sample, break down as 66% no influence, 19% reinforced choice and 9% open to change.
The reinforcement effect is strongest on the right. Among non-Bolsonarist right-wing voters, 40% say the crisis reinforces their decision, against 51% who see no influence. Among Bolsonarists, 35% report reinforcement and 52% report no impact. "If this scenario of lulists and bolsonarists frozen in place holds, independents will make the difference," Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest and a professor at Fundacao Getulio Vargas, wrote on X.
According to CNN Brasil, which reported other findings from the same round of interviews, 73% of respondents say they know about the case involving justices Andre Mendonca and Alexandre de Moraes and former banker Daniel Vorcaro. On the dispute between the two justices, 37% say Mendonca is acting correctly, 16% approve of Moraes, 20% say both are acting wrongly and 25% did not answer.
What happens next
The crisis escalated in early September, when Mendonca lifted the secrecy on a Federal Police report citing messages that Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master who is jailed over billion-real frauds, sent to a contact the police attributed to Moraes. Moraes asked the court to investigate Mendonca for abuse of power. Court president Fachin canceled plenary sessions at the height of the confrontation, suspended conflicting orders issued by his colleagues, removed Moraes from the fake news inquiry and centralized crisis-related decisions in the court presidency.
Fachin has scheduled a plenary session for Tuesday (15) to examine the Federal Police report on the relationship between Moraes and Vorcaro and the request by the Prosecutor General's office to void the document. The session takes place in the middle of the presidential campaign.