The British newspaper Financial Times says the unprecedented crisis at Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) could have a decisive impact on the country's presidential election next month. In a report published on Sunday, the newspaper describes the crisis as a "fierce dispute" between Justices Alexandre de Moraes and André Mendonça that it says is "casting a shadow" over the race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party.
Voters head to the polls with the race wide open. The BBC News Brasil poll of polls puts Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for a runoff. According to the Financial Times, the senator has closed the gap in opinion polls in recent weeks against a rival who is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term.
Why the crisis hurts Lula
The crisis grew out of an inquiry at the court into Banco Master, a Brazilian bank. Lula has not been accused in the case. The newspaper argues, however, that the episode touches a raw nerve for the incumbent.
"Although Lula has not been accused in the Banco Master case, the episode touches a sensitive spot of the veteran leftwing leader, who was jailed in the past for corruption in convictions later annulled," the newspaper writes.
Analysts cited by the Financial Times see the crisis as potentially damaging to Lula in the race. One of them says part of the Brazilian electorate believes Moraes is somehow aligned with the government side. The newspaper adds that the episode has tarnished the credibility of an institution that won international praise in recent years for defending Brazil against a military coup attempt by Jair Bolsonaro after his 2022 election defeat to Lula. It also says the crisis has revitalized the Brazilian right, which has long accused Moraes of unfairly persecuting conservatives and restricting free speech.
Flávio Bolsonaro's play
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, was cited in the Banco Master case after revelations in May that he asked the banker Daniel Vorcaro for money to produce the film Dark Horse. The senator says the request broke no law. He has renewed calls for the removal of Moraes, who convicted his father. "A vote for Lula is a vote for Moraes," Flávio told supporters last week, according to the newspaper.
The Financial Times writes that the episode "brought the court to the brink of an institutional collapse" and fueled calls for judicial reform. The election is next month. Until then, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain tied in the polling average, and the standoff between Moraes and Mendonça is unresolved at the court.