Nearly half of Brazilian voters say the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court, known as STF, will weigh on their vote for president. A Datafolha poll released on Friday (18) found that 47% of voters believe the crisis involving the court and the Banco Master scandal will carry some influence over their choice. For 36%, the weight will be heavy. For 11%, it will be small.
Another 49% say the crisis will have no impact on their decision, and 4% did not answer. Datafolha, one of Brazil's main polling institutes, interviewed 2,001 voters from Tuesday (15) to Thursday (17). The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, the TSE, under code BR-04029/2026.
The poll was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and by Globo, and the fieldwork ran entirely under the impact of the crisis. According to Folha, the dispute has spilled into the presidential campaign and now drives much of the political debate in the country. G1, Globo's news portal, published the same figures.
Weight is heavier among Flávio Bolsonaro voters
Among voters of President Lula, of the Workers Party, 26% say the crisis will heavily influence their vote and 12% say it will have a small influence. Most of the group, 58%, say it carries no weight. The margin of error for this cut is 3 points. Among supporters of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the right-wing PL party, 45% assign heavy influence to the crisis, 9% assign a small influence and 43% rule out any effect. That cut carries a 4-point margin.
Among voters aligned with neither Lula nor the Bolsonaro camp, 43% say the crisis will weigh heavily, 13% cite a small influence and 40% see no effect. The margin for this group is 5 points.
Voters name Lula as the most harmed candidate
In another cut of the survey, 38% of voters name Lula as the presidential candidate harmed by the crisis. Flávio Bolsonaro comes next, at 31%. The question was spontaneous and allowed multiple answers, after a filter asking whether the crisis hurts the presidential campaigns.
Other candidates trail far behind: 2% name Renan Santos of the Missão party and another 2% name Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD. Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema get 1% each. For 5%, all candidates will be harmed. Another 25% see no harm to any candidacy, and 14% did not answer.
Among Lula's own voters, 38% name the president as harmed and 33% name Flávio Bolsonaro. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for October 4.