A Datafolha poll released on Saturday (Sept. 5) shows that 57% of Brazilian voters say they are more decided to vote in this year's presidential election than they were in 2022. The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. Its margin of error is two percentage points.
Datafolha, one of Brazil's main polling firms, interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 or older in 125 cities on Sept. 1 and 2. The confidence level is 95%. The poll is registered with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, under number BR-03669/2026.
According to the news site G1, 32% of respondents say they are as decided as in 2022, 11% say they are less decided and 1% did not answer. Among those who named a candidate, supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro (68%) and of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (61%) are the most decided. Supporters of Romeu Zema (22%) and Ronaldo Caiado (17%) account for the largest share of voters who feel less decided than four years ago. Among voters aligned with neither Lula's camp nor Bolsonarismo, 40% feel more decided, 41% equally decided and 18% less decided.
Concern and information
Concern about the outcome also grew compared with 2022: 46% of respondents say they are more worried, 28% equally worried and 24% less worried. On campaign proposals, 41% say they are better informed than in the previous race, 36% equally informed and 21% less informed. On news, 42% say they follow more coverage of the presidential race than in 2022. Campaign engagement is the only item where most respondents report the same level as four years ago: 45% equally engaged, 32% less engaged and 18% more engaged.
First round numbers
The same round of interviews, whose first round numbers were released on Thursday (Sept. 3), keeps Lula at 38% of voting intentions against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Augusto Cury rose six points to 8%. They are followed by Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, Renan Santos at 3% and Romeu Zema at 2%. Another 6% plan a blank or spoiled ballot and 3% are undecided. Folha reports that the five point gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is half the margin recorded in May; in the previous poll two weeks earlier, the score was 39% to 33%.
In a simulated runoff, Lula is numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 46% to 44%, a difference within the margin of error, effectively a statistical tie. Rejection remains high for both men: 47% say they would never vote for the senator and 45% say the same of the president. The first round vote is scheduled for Oct. 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.