Brazil's Datafolha institute releases on Thursday night (17) the first presidential poll conducted since the session of the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) that examined the relationship between former banker Daniel Vorcaro and justices of the court. The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo. It heard 2,002 voters aged 16 or older from Tuesday (15) to Thursday (17), with a margin of error of two percentage points, a 95% confidence level and registration with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-04029/2026, according to the newspaper O Globo.
The previous round, released on September 11, gave President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) 39% of first-round voting intentions against 35% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, in the scenario without Pablo Marçal. Augusto Cury had 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 2%. In a runoff simulation, Lula led 46% to 44%, a difference within the margin of error. Datafolha said the four-point first-round gap was the narrowest since mid-May, and rejection was identical on both sides: 46% said they would not vote for a Liberal Party candidate, the same share that ruled out a Workers' Party candidate.
The fieldwork for that earlier poll ended before two episodes changed the tone of the race. On September 15, the full court debated Vorcaro's ties to justices, a session centered on the Master Bank case and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Separately came the revelation that Flávio Bolsonaro had become a target of an inquiry into the financing of a film about his father. According to Folha, Thursday's poll is the first to measure voters after both facts.
Recent surveys disagree on how the court crisis is affecting the election. In the Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo and O Globo, 67% of voters said the Supreme Court crisis does not influence their presidential vote, and 7% said they could change candidates after new revelations in the Master case. AtlasIntel, in a survey cited by CNN Brasil, put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in a simulated runoff, 47.2% to 46.8%.
The numbers will be presented from 7:15 p.m. in a live broadcast by Folha with Datafolha director Luciana Chong and columnists Mônica Bergamo and Fábio Zanini. The first round is set for October 4, 17 days away. Two decisions could still change the race: electoral courts have yet to rule on Pablo Marçal's candidacy, which forces Datafolha to test two first-round scenarios, and court president Edson Fachin removed from the agenda on Thursday a ruling on Justice André Mendonça that had been scheduled for September 23.