A Datafolha poll released on Saturday (September 12) shows the 2026 presidential race breaking down differently from state to state. The survey, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, interviewed voters in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco and the Federal District between September 8 and 10. In the first-round scenario, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-leaning PL party leads in three of them, and President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) in two.

• São Paulo: Flávio Bolsonaro 35%, Lula 33%, statistical tie (2-point margin of error)
• Rio de Janeiro: Flávio 39%, Lula 35%, statistical tie (3-point margin)
• Minas Gerais: Lula 37%, Flávio 35%, statistical tie (3-point margin)
• Pernambuco: Lula 55%, Flávio 24% (3-point margin)
• Federal District: Flávio 40%, Lula 32% (3-point margin)

According to g1, which published results for all five states, the races in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais count as statistical ties because the gap between the two frontrunners falls within the margin of error. In Pernambuco, Lula's 31-point lead, and in the Federal District, Flávio Bolsonaro's 8-point lead, exceed the 3-point margin.

Runoff simulations

Among São Paulo voters, a runoff between the two would put Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% against 42% for Lula, a 5-point lead above the 2-point margin. In Minas Gerais the race remains open: Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, within the 3-point margin. Folha published those runoff numbers.

Folha's breakdown of the São Paulo first round shows Augusto Cury (Avante) at 7%, Renan Santos (Missão) at 6% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 4%. Samara Martins (UP) and Romeu Zema (Novo) have 2% each. Another 6% say they will cast blank or spoiled ballots, and 2% are undecided.

How to read the numbers

Interviews were conducted in person, at a 95% confidence level. In practice, 95 out of 100 identical measurements would land within the stated margin of error: 2 percentage points in São Paulo and 3 in the other states. The first-round figures measure stated vote intention as of September 8 to 10; the runoff figures simulate a contest that does not exist yet. Neither is a forecast of the October 2026 vote.

Recent history shows how close these states can run. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro beat Lula in São Paulo 55.2% to 44.8%, a gap of 2.7 million votes. In Minas Gerais, Lula won by 0.4 point, about 49,500 votes. Minas is Brazil's second-largest electorate and has historically sided with the eventual winner, as Folha noted.

Readers who want to check the data at the source can consult the complete state-by-state results published by g1 and Datafolha, including the runoff simulations and the ratings of the Lula government measured in each state. Brazil's presidential election takes place in October 2026.