Senator Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos party leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil's second most populous state, with 37% of voter intentions in the first round, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday (Sept. 11). Patrus Ananias of the Workers' Party (PT), a former mayor of Belo Horizonte, has 13%. Alexandre Kalil of the PDT, another former mayor of the state capital, has 11%.

Datafolha, one of Brazil's main polling institutes, ran the survey for Folha de S.Paulo and Globo. It interviewed 1,204 voters aged 16 and older between Sept. 8 and 10, in face-to-face interviews. The margin of error is three percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with electoral authorities under number MG-01611/2026.

Cleitinho gains five points since August

In the previous poll, on Aug. 21, Cleitinho had 32%. The five-point gain puts the senator 24 points ahead of the runner-up. Patrus rose from 12% to 13%, a change within the margin of error. Kalil slipped from 12% to 11%. According to Folha, the two former mayors are technically tied for second place.

Farther back sit Governor Mateus Simões of the PSD, who is running for reelection, businessman Flávio Roscoe of the PL, and Gabriel Azevedo of the MDB, all at 4%. Approval of the state government fell from 41% to 37% since August, while disapproval rose from 32% to 38%. Blank, null or no answers total 11%, and undecided voters account for 10%.

Lead holds in runoff scenarios

For the first time this election, Datafolha also published valid votes, a measure that excludes blank, null and undecided responses. On that basis, Cleitinho reaches 47%, against 17% for Patrus and 14% for Kalil. Patrus has the highest rejection rate among the front-runners: 30% of voters say they would not vote for him. Cleitinho's rejection stands at 15%.

In simulated runoffs, the senator beats both rivals. Against Kalil, Cleitinho takes 54% to 29%. Against Patrus, he reaches 59% to 24%. The first round of Brazil's elections is scheduled for Oct. 4.