Governor Raquel Lyra of the PSD leads the race for the governorship of Pernambuco with 47% of voter intentions, against 42% for former Recife mayor João Campos of the PSB, a Datafolha poll released on Friday, September 11 shows. The five-point gap falls inside the poll's three-percentage-point margin of error, and the result is treated as a statistical tie.

Datafolha, one of Brazil's best-known polling institutes, conducted the survey for the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo. Lyra, who governs the northeastern state, is running for reelection. Campos is a former mayor of Recife, the state capital. In the previous round of the poll, published on August 21, Lyra had 47% and Campos 40%; his gain stayed within the margin of error, Folha reported. The other candidates trail far behind: Ivan Moraes (PSOL), Renan Hallais (Missão) and Professora Camila, a teacher candidate of the UP, each poll 1%, while Guilherme Fonseca (PSTU), Professor Jeremias do Banco (Democrata) and Victor Assis (PCO) registered zero.

First round or runoff

Counting only valid votes, which exclude blank, spoiled and undecided responses, Lyra reaches 51% against 46% for Campos. If that held on election day, she would win outright in the first round. Factoring in the margin of error, however, she could have as little as 48% of valid votes, Folha noted. In the full-candidate scenario, blank, spoiled or none-of-the-above answers add up to 6%, and 2% of respondents gave no answer.

In a simulated runoff between the two, Lyra polls 51% against 44% for Campos, with 4% blank or spoiled votes and 1% undecided. The August 21 survey had included no runoff scenario, g1 reported. The same poll found that 48% of voters rate Lyra's administration positively and 20% negatively.

Datafolha interviewed 1,204 voters aged 16 and over in 48 municipalities across Pernambuco between September 8 and 10, according to Folha. The survey has a 95% confidence level, g1 reported, and is registered with the electoral court under numbers PE-04411/2026 and BR-05923/2026.

The first round of Brazil's elections is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, Lyra and Campos would face each other in a runoff on October 25.