Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads President Lula (PT) by 38% to 33% in São Paulo state in a first-round scenario for Brazil's presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday, September 25. The survey, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, comes nine days before the October 4 vote. São Paulo is the country's largest electoral college.

In the stimulated survey, in which pollsters read out the candidates' names, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) stands at 7% and Senator Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 5%. Renan Santos (Missão) has 4% and Romeu Zema (Novo) 2%. Blank and null answers add up to 6%, and 2% are undecided.

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rose from 35% in the previous poll, released on September 11. Lula was unchanged at 33%. The five-point gap exceeds the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error.

In a simulated runoff between the two, Flávio Bolsonaro gets 49% against 41% for Lula. The previous survey, from September 12, had the score at 47% to 42%. Blank and null votes total 10%, with 1% undecided.

Lula's government is rated excellent or good by 27% of voters in the state and bad or terrible by 46%. In the previous round those figures were 25% and 48%. Another 26% called the government average.

The national map

According to Folha, the three largest electoral colleges, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, together hold about 40% of Brazil's eligible voters. In the same Datafolha round, Flávio Bolsonaro also leads in Rio de Janeiro, 44% to 38% in the first round, Lula is numerically ahead in Minas Gerais, 39% to 37%, a statistical tie, and holds a wide lead in Pernambuco, 60% to 24%. In 2022, Lula lost São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro state to Jair Bolsonaro and won Minas.

Datafolha interviewed 1,610 people in São Paulo state on September 22 and 23. The confidence level is 95%, and the poll is registered as BR-09355/2026. The first round of the presidential election takes place on October 4.