São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicanos party has 49% of voter intentions in the first round of the race for Brazil's most populous state, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday (Sept. 11). Former minister Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party (PT) has 29%. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and by Globo.
Among valid votes, a count that excludes blank and spoiled ballots and undecided voters, Tarcísio reaches 56% against Haddad's 32%. It is the first time the institute has published this calculation in the 2026 race. In Brazil, a candidate wins outright in the first round with more than half of valid votes. At that level, the governor could secure reelection on Oct. 4.
The lead has grown since August
In the previous Datafolha round, on Aug. 21, Tarcísio had 45% and Haddad 27%. The gap widened from 18 to 20 points. In the spontaneous survey, where no list of names is shown, the governor has 32% and the PT candidate 16%, with 41% undecided. In a possible runoff, Datafolha has Tarcísio winning 56% to 35%. Rejection is higher for Haddad: 48% of respondents say they would not vote for him, against 29% for the governor.
Government approval and the rest of the field
Tarcísio's administration is rated excellent or good by 46% of São Paulo voters. Another 30% call it fair and 21% poor or terrible. In August, the positive rating was 42%. The governor's work is approved by 63% and disapproved by 32%.
The other candidates trail far behind: police officer Edjane of Agir and Carlos Machado of the PCB have 3% each, Vera Lúcia (PSTU) and Vivian Mendes (UP) have 2% each, and Izadora Dias (PCO) has 1%. Blank and spoiled ballots and those who say they would vote for no one add up to 8%, and 3% are undecided. For 66% of respondents the vote is settled; 34% say they may change before election day.
Datafolha interviewed 1,610 voters in São Paulo state between Sept. 8 and 10. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) as SP-04189/2026. Voting takes place on Oct. 4.