President Lula of the Workers' Party leads Brazil's presidential race with 39% of first-round voting intentions, against 35% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday (11). In a simulated runoff, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44%, a difference within the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error, a technical tie. Datafolha, one of Brazil's main polling institutes, conducted the survey for Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.
The scenario tested excludes Pablo Marçal, an influencer who is currently barred from running; according to G1, electoral courts have yet to decide whether he can compete. Behind the two leaders, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 6%, Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 4%, Renan Santos (Missão) 3% and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (Novo) 2%. Blank and spoiled votes total 6%, and 4% of respondents are undecided. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rose two points from the September 3 round, when he had 33%; Lula gained one point; and Cury fell from 8% to 6%.
Runoff scenarios
The Lula-versus-Flávio runoff numbers repeat the September 3 round point for point. In the second half of August, the gap was four points, 47% to 43. Datafolha tested a runoff against Cury for the first time: 45% to 43, another technical tie. Against Caiado, Lula leads 46% to 41. The margin widens against Zema, 48% to 39, and Renan Santos, 48% to 37.
Rejection of the two front-runners is identical: 46% of voters say they would never vote for Lula, and another 46% say the same of Flávio Bolsonaro, the institute found. The survey also shows that 75% of voters are fully decided on their choice, while 25% say they could still change.
The same poll measured the government's standing: 47% of respondents approve of Lula's administration and 50% disapprove. On September 3 the figures were 45% and 51%. In the overall evaluation, 42% rate the government as bad or terrible, 32% as excellent or good, and 25% as fair.
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 and over across the country between September 8 and 10. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil's top electoral tribunal, under number BR-01833/2026. The first round of the election takes place in October. Before that, the electoral courts must decide whether Pablo Marçal can enter the race.