Former ministers Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB) lead the race for São Paulo's two Senate seats with 13% of voter intentions each, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday (11). Datafolha is one of Brazil's main polling institutes, and the survey was commissioned by TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. With a margin of error of two percentage points, state deputy André do Prado (PL), at 11%, and federal deputy Guilherme Derrite (PP), at 10%, are technically tied with the two leaders: a four-way statistical tie.

How the poll was conducted

According to G1, 1,610 people were interviewed between September 8 and 10, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number SP-04189/2026. InfoMoney, which also published the results, reports fieldwork from September 8 to 11.

In the combined tally for both seats, Ricardo Salles (Novo) has 5%, and Geraldo Rufino (Podemos) and Guto Schiavetto (Missão) have 3% each. Five other candidates poll 2% and one polls 1%, while two did not register a single mention. Another 18% said they will cast a blank or null vote or support no candidate, and 14% are undecided. In the spontaneous question, where names are not shown to respondents, 68% could not name a candidate; Tebet, Derrite and Marina each got 5%.

Two votes per voter

In 2026 Brazil elects two senators in every state and in the Federal District, renewing 54 of the Senate's 81 seats. Each voter must mark two different names. As G1 explains:

"That is why each voter needs to vote for two different candidates. It is not possible to choose the same name twice."

The picture shifts when answers are broken down by seat. For the first seat, Marina, Tebet and Derrite each poll 15%, with Prado at 13%. For the second, Marina and Tebet hold 11%, Prado drops to 9%, and Salles and Derrite tie at 6%. Derrite's support is concentrated in the first vote, while Salles gains in the second.

Schiavetto entered the survey in this round: he was not yet listed as a candidate in the electoral court's system when the previous poll was registered, and, according to G1, the results cannot be compared. For InfoMoney, the 18% of blank and null answers plus 14% of undecided voters show the race is still largely undefined.

The first round is scheduled for October 4. Four names remain within the margin of error for the two seats at stake in Brazil's most populous state.