A Datafolha poll released on Friday (11) shows former Rio mayor Eduardo Paes, of the PSD, leading the race for governor of Rio de Janeiro state with 43% of first-round voting intentions. Douglas Ruas, of the PL party, is second with 25%, and Anthony Garotinho, of Republicanos, has 10%, according to news website g1.
Paes's lead narrowed from 22 to 18 percentage points compared with the previous poll, while Ruas gained 6 points. Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo commissioned the survey, one of Brazil's most closely watched election polls. Interviewers heard 1,204 people between September 8 and 10. The margin of error is three percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with electoral authorities under number RJ-09217/2026.
Garotinho in third despite barred candidacy
Garotinho reached 10% even though the state electoral court, the TRE-RJ, unanimously denied his candidacy registration earlier on Friday. The court found that the former governor's political rights are suspended for eight years because of a final conviction for administrative improbity in a case over the diversion of Health Department funds. The case covered his time as government secretary under his wife, former governor Rosinha Garotinho.
The electoral prosecutor's office says the conviction became final on July 11, 2025. "He cannot vote or be voted for," said regional electoral prosecutor Flávio Paixão. Garotinho can still appeal to the TSE, Brazil's top electoral court.
"I reaffirm that I am a candidate for the state government, and the TRE-RJ ruling does not affect the campaign, as the TSE recently decided. I remain firm and strong to save the state of Rio de Janeiro from this den of corruption."
Runoff scenario
In a simulated runoff between Paes and Ruas, the former mayor takes 54% against 34% for the PL candidate. Blank, null and no-candidate answers add up to 10%, and 2% are undecided, g1 reported.
The same Datafolha wave puts approval of Governor Ricardo Couto's administration at 45%, against 34% disapproval. In the Senate race, Benedita leads with 18%, ahead of Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho, at 10% each. Nine candidates are running for the Palácio Guanabara, the seat of the state government. The TSE is the next stop for Garotinho's appeal. The first round of voting is less than a month away.