R$ 4.99. That was the closing price of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real this Friday (23), the last trading session on the B3 exchange before Sunday's presidential runoff. For travelers and buyers of imported goods, the American currency is now almost 10% cheaper than in January: it has fallen 9.03% so far this year, according to G1.

Sao Paulo's stock market moved in the same direction. The Ibovespa, Brazil's benchmark stock index, rose 0.47% to close at 205,083 points, a gain of 962 points in the day. A R$ 10,000 investment tracking the index would have earned about R$ 47 on Friday, and would now be worth nearly R$ 12,730 after the 27.28% gain accumulated this year.

Investor sentiment was set by the new Datafolha poll, released the day before: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 47% of voting intentions, and President Lula (PT), 46%, a statistical tie. In valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots and the undecided, each has 50%. According to InfoMoney, part of the market is betting on a repeat of the so-called "Flavio rally" that followed the first round, but foreign investors increased their purchases of protection against a stock market drop, an expensive hedge that reveals caution.

Explained

Explained: the IPCA-15, a preview of Brazil's official inflation calculated by the statistics agency IBGE, also moved the session. The index rose 0.32% in October, less than the market expected and well below September's 0.70%. Tamer inflation reduces bets on high interest rates, and futures rates fell through the day, according to InfoMoney.

Not everything was calm. Oil rose sharply abroad, with Brent crude at US$ 117.08 a barrel, up 3.45%, pressured by attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and by new strikes between Russia and Ukraine, according to G1. Wall Street closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.25%.

For the week, the dollar fell 1.57% against the real and the Ibovespa slipped 0.17%. The small caps index, which groups smaller companies, jumped 20% in October, its best month in more than 17 years, according to a survey by consultancy Elos Ayta cited by InfoMoney. Among the giants, miner Vale rose 0.67% after three straight losses, and state oil company Petrobras advanced on the back of crude prices.

Polls open on Sunday (25). On Monday, the market will trade again already knowing the name of Brazil's next president, and the first reaction of investors will show whether Friday's bet was right.