R$ 200 billion. That is how much Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) promises to cut from public spending, an amount that could pay the minimum Bolsa Família benefit of R$ 691 to all 19.3 million families in the welfare program for about 15 months. For Finance Minister Dario Durigan, the promise is a "cheap and empty illusion that the market is buying."

Durigan made the remark in an interview with CNN Brasil on Thursday (8), according to Poder360. It came the same day the first Datafolha poll of the runoff showed Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 49% of voting intentions against 45% for President Lula (PT), a statistical tie within the two-point margin of error. The decisive vote is on October 25.

Explained: a fiscal adjustment is the effort to balance government accounts by cutting spending or raising revenue. Flávio's campaign projects savings of 1.5% of GDP (the total value of everything the country produces in a year), roughly R$ 200 billion, without detailing where the money would come from.

For Durigan, a cut that size would wipe out nearly all of the Executive's discretionary spending, the slice of the budget the government can choose where to apply, such as investments and service maintenance. "Taking out R$ 200 billion, which is all the discretionary spending the Executive has, means going back to deforestation," he said. In his view, the measure would undermine social policies and public services.

The minister denied that the Lula administration spent beyond what the budget allowed and listed containment measures: a R$ 20 billion spending freeze in 2025, R$ 16 billion in 2026 and a review of tax breaks. In his assessment, public debt is growing because of interest payments, not because of the primary result (the balance of revenue and spending before interest). Durigan also said the Jair Bolsonaro government made no consistent adjustment and saw country risk and indebtedness worsen.

Flávio vows to spare pensions

On Thursday, Flávio Bolsonaro denied he would cut pensions and promised to keep adjustments above inflation. "Retiree, rest easy, don't fall for this PT fake news," he told reporters after the meeting that sealed the Podemos party's endorsement of his candidacy, according to Metrópoles. The senator said the savings would come from fighting corruption and overpriced contracts.

The promise collides with the budget's own numbers, Metrópoles points out: social security accounts for about half of federal spending, with R$ 1.2 trillion in benefits forecast for next year. Today, pensions of up to one minimum wage get real increases, while benefits above that floor are corrected only by the INPC inflation index.

The Datafolha poll heard 2,520 voters between Tuesday and Wednesday and has a two-point margin of error. In valid votes, which exclude blank and undecided ballots, Flávio has 52% and Lula, 48%. Rejection remains high for both: 46% say they would not vote for Lula and 43% say the same about Flávio, according to Folha de S.Paulo.