Polls by Quaest released Tuesday (25th) show a statistical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, Rio de Janeiro) in Brazil's three largest electoral states: São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. According to G1, the outlet that first reported the scenario, both campaigns are expected to intensify their schedules in the Southeast region in the coming weeks.
In São Paulo, Brazil's largest electorate, Flávio Bolsonaro polls at 30% against Lula's 29%, within the poll's two-point margin of error. In Minas Gerais, Flávio leads 31% to 30%. In Rio de Janeiro, the senator has 31% against the president's 29%. Those two states carry a three-point margin of error, which also puts the race within statistical tie territory.
The São Paulo survey polled 1,800 people between August 21 and 24, with a 95% confidence level, registered under number BR-02096/2026 with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE, the body that oversees and certifies elections). The polls also point to a significant share of undecided voters: 17% in Minas Gerais, 16% in Rio de Janeiro and 13% in São Paulo, according to G1.
Campaign strategies
A member of Lula's inner campaign circle told G1 the Southeast will be a priority. "We will prioritize these three states, whether for their political weight, the size of the electorate, or the volume of investments the president has made," the source said. Internally, Lula's campaign believes he has completed public works and investments in the region during his term and now has stronger state-level running mates than in the 2022 race.
On Flávio Bolsonaro's side, campaign coordinator Senator Rogério Marinho (Liberal Party, Rio Grande do Norte) told GloboNews he does not comment on polls, but confirmed the strategic focus on the region. "We will campaign in the Northeast and across all of Brazil. But our focus is to win, and the largest number of voters is in the Southeast," Marinho said. Analysts cited by G1 believe the pool of undecided voters could prove decisive in a tight final stretch, a dynamic that tends to draw campaigns toward states where more voters remain up for grabs.
In the first two weeks of campaigning, both candidates already concentrated much of their schedules in the Southeast. Lula opened his campaign with a rally in São Paulo, while Flávio launched his candidacy in Rio de Janeiro. The following week, both kept commitments in Minas Gerais and returned to Rio seeking support. The election is set for October 4, and the pace of campaign stops in the region is expected to accelerate as both sides try to win over the Southeast's undecided voters.