The number of the night is 19%. That was the drop in the EWZ, the main fund of Brazilian stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange, in Sunday's after-hours session (trading that continues after the regular close), right after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection was confirmed, according to G1. For anyone with money in Brazilian equities, the message is blunt: foreign investors are selling Brazil, and Monday at the São Paulo exchange could be rough.
In plain terms, every R$ 1,000 invested in the fund was worth about R$ 810 within hours of the election result. At 9:16 p.m. in Brasília, the EWZ was down 18.53%, at US$ 34.69, InfoMoney reported; by 9:37 p.m. the loss had reached 19%, according to G1. On Friday (23), the fund had closed up 1.77%.
The sell-off also hit ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), the certificates representing Brazilian companies' shares traded in New York. Petrobras fell as much as 11.96%, to US$ 23.15, and Itaú sank 13.65%, InfoMoney reported, while Vale was down 4.19%.
Understand it: an ETF (exchange-traded fund) is a fund whose shares trade on a stock exchange and track an index. The EWZ follows the MSCI Brazil index, a basket of large and mid-sized Brazilian companies, and it is the main doorway foreign investors use to bet on the country. When it plunges on a Sunday, with Brazil's B3 exchange closed, it shows how the outside world reads the election result.
What to expect on Monday
The negative reaction has an explanation: markets had bet on Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who lost by 51.76% to 48.24% of valid votes. Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research, told InfoMoney that a Lula victory was not analysts' base scenario.
"Monday can be quite volatile, because there will be a correction of course and of mood in the market," Sung said, forecasting turbulence in the exchange rate, in future interest rates and in the government bond market.
Since Brazil's stock exchange does not open on Sundays, the latest official figures are Friday's: the Ibovespa rose 0.47%, to 205,083 points, and is up 27.28% in 2026. The commercial dollar fell 0.90%, to R$ 4.9930, with a 9.03% decline this year. A cheaper dollar helps hold down fuel and imported goods prices at the supermarket; the shift in mood could undo part of that relief.
Before the vote, the domestic backdrop had even been favorable: the IPCA-15, a preview of Brazil's official inflation, rose 0.32% in October, less than markets expected, G1 reported. Abroad, Brent crude rose 3.45%, to US$ 117.08 a barrel, which tends to push up gasoline prices in coming months.