The campaign of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party wants to finish ahead of President Lula of the PT in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. According to Valdo Cruz's blog at G1, the strategy is to build a sense of momentum strong enough to draw most voters away from the other right-wing candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), Augusto Cury (Avante) and Renan Santos (Missão). The PL team also hopes to win the formal backing of the Centrão, the bloc of pragmatic center and center-right parties in Congress that stayed out of the first round. The most optimistic voices in the campaign even talk about winning outright, riding what they call a "useful vote" wave.
What the polls show
The race is at the edge of a tie. The latest Quaest survey has Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a potential runoff, G1 reports. A Datafolha poll found that in a second round the PL candidate could draw 43% of voters who currently back Zema, Renan Santos, Caiado and Cury, while Lula would take 30% of that group. Bolsonaro does best among Zema and Renan Santos voters. Among Caiado and Cury voters, the race is a technical tie. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll cited by InfoMoney also shows a technical tie in the runoff, with a slight numerical edge for Lula.
Lula's counter-strategy
On the president's side, every effort will go into finishing the first round in the lead, G1 reports. Allies point to two moves in Lula's favor: an already announced increase in the Bolsa Família cash transfer program, and a provisional measure, a decree with the force of law, to crack down on bets, the online gambling companies. The Painel S.A. column of Folha de S.Paulo reported on Wednesday that the measure is expected to be issued before the first round, and that platforms such as TikTok are already preparing for restrictions on gambling ads.
Lula's team is betting on women voters, seen as decisive this year. Allies say the measure on bets will land hardest with women, who are the most critical of online gambling and a group in which the president already leads.
"The polls show a strong feeling against betting today. Lula will work with that feeling in his favor. It will weigh heavily, very heavily, in this final stretch," a presidential interlocutor said.
According to that aide, entering the runoff in the lead would hold the Centrão in place and even influence allies of Flávio Bolsonaro. In the assessment of Lula's camp, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of Republicanos should win reelection in the first round and will not campaign hard for the PL candidate in the final stretch. The reason, in that reading: Tarcísio is expected to run for president in 2030 and would rather not have Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential palace next year.
The first round is on October 4. If no candidate tops 50% of valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on October 25.