Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing PL party has moved numerically ahead of President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) in a simulated runoff for the first time since Brazil's presidential campaign began. The Quaest poll released on Monday (14) shows Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 42% of voter support against 40% for the incumbent.
The two-point gap falls within the survey's margin of error of two percentage points, so the race remains a statistical tie. In the previous round, released on September 7, both men had 41%. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over between September 10 and 13, in a survey commissioned by Globo together with the newspaper O Globo. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03607/2026, with a 95% confidence level. Brazilian broadcaster Itatiaia reported the same figures.
Where the votes are moving
Quaest director Felipe Nunes points to two shifts behind the result: Bolsonaro's gains among women and in the Southeast region. Among women, the race is now a statistical tie, with 41% for Lula and 38% for Bolsonaro. In August, the president led by 12 points in that group.
"Flávio has managed a surprisingly strong performance among women, who were the main source of rejection of Bolsonaro after the pandemic and the gun-access easing policies of the previous government," Nunes said.
In the Southeast, home to Brazil's three biggest electorates, Bolsonaro leads by 16 points, 47% to 31%. Lula stays ahead only in the Northeast, where he has 60% against 28%. By income, the president wins among the poorest voters (51% to 32%) and loses among middle-income ones (36% to 46%) and the wealthiest (34% to 47%). Among Catholics, Lula has 46% to 38%. Among evangelicals, Bolsonaro has 51% to 28%. Among voters who identify with neither the right nor the left, Bolsonaro leads 36% to 26%.
In the first-round scenario, the same Quaest round shows Lula with 36%, Bolsonaro with 31% and Augusto Cury with 7%. Among Cury's voters, 41% say they would back Bolsonaro in a runoff, against 25% who would choose Lula.
Brazil's first-round election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the runoff takes place on October 25.