2.2%. That is how much the IMF now expects Brazil's economy to grow in 2026, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on Monday night (Oct. 12), during the fund's annual meetings in Bangkok. In July, the forecast was 2.4%, and a gap that looks small still means billions of reais in goods and services that would no longer be produced in the country.

For workers, the math is straightforward: slower growth usually means fewer job openings, rarer pay raises and expensive credit for longer. It is like planning a household budget around a raise and getting less than expected.

The fund also lowered its 2027 forecast for Brazil, from 2.2% to 1.9%. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the report blames still-high interest rates, kept in place to bring inflation back to target, the withdrawal of government spending support and global uncertainty.

Understanding the IMF report

The World Economic Outlook is the flagship report of the IMF, the international body that monitors the economies of its member countries. Published twice a year with interim updates, it serves as a reference for governments and investors. GDP, the acronym behind these projections, is the sum of all goods and services a country produces.

Even after the cut, the IMF remains more optimistic than Brazil's own government: the Finance Ministry's Macrofiscal Bulletin expects 2% growth in 2026. A week earlier, the World Bank moved in the opposite direction, raising its estimate for this year from 1.9% to 2.1% but cutting 2027 from 2% to 1.7%.

Abroad, China also had its projections reduced, to 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The global economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow 3.1% this year, 0.1 percentage point more than forecast in July, and 3.4% in 2027, unchanged. The United States held steady at 2.3%, while India was revised upward from 6.4% to 7%.

Saudi Arabia is expected to shrink by 3.3%, in line with other oil exporters hit by disruptions from the war in Iran. Three months ago, the fund had cut its global forecast, citing the Middle East war, trade fragmentation and the risk of corrections in market bets on artificial intelligence. On that occasion, Brazil's projections had been raised.