Economists surveyed by Brazil's Central Bank raised their 2026 inflation forecast from 4.92% to 4.99% in the weekly Focus bulletin released on Monday (28). If the estimate holds, a 300-real monthly grocery run would cost about 15 reais more after a year. It is the second straight weekly increase, after the figure moved from 4.90% to 4.92% last week, and it now sits just short of 5%.
Moving in the opposite direction, the forecast for GDP growth (the total value of goods and services produced in Brazil) fell from 1.88% to 1.86%. It was the third straight cut and the lowest reading since May, according to Folha de S.Paulo. In practical terms, for every 100 reais of output today, the market expects only about 1.86 additional reais this year.
How it works: the Focus comes out every Monday and gathers projections from bank and consulting-firm economists on inflation, growth, interest rates and the currency. The benchmark index is the IPCA, Brazil's official consumer price index, compiled by the national statistics agency IBGE. The Central Bank's inflation target is centered at 3% with a ceiling of 4.5%, so the 4.99% forecast sits above that limit.
Interest rates and the outlook
The Selic rate expected for the end of 2026 stayed at 13.5% a year, unchanged after a cut from 13.75% in recent weeks. The Selic is Brazil's policy rate: banks use it as the benchmark to price loans, car and home financing and credit cards, always with a markup on top. On the projected path, economists see the rate at 13.75% in September, 13.63% in October and 13.5% in November, falling to 12% by the end of 2027.
The exchange rate expected for the end of 2026 held at R$ 5.20 per dollar, and at R$ 5.28 for 2027. For the coming months, the market projects IPCA readings of 0.56% in September, 0.33% in October and 0.35% in November, up from a previous 0.32% estimate for the month. The inflation accumulated over 12 months expected by the market rose from 4.62% to 4.65%.
Looking further out, economists expect inflation of 4.31% in 2027, 3.80% in 2028 and 3.50% in 2029, with growth of 1.41% in 2027. The news site Boletim Nacional, which tracked the data, also recorded GDP forecasts of 1.83% in 2028 and 2% in 2029, plus Selic rates of 10.5% and 10% in those years. For administered prices, such as electricity tariffs and fuels, the 2026 forecast rose from 4.61% to 4.63%.