Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the opposition PL presidential candidate and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 47% of voter support in a simulated runoff against President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), who is seeking reelection with 40%, according to a Gerp poll released on Wednesday (Sept 9) by CNN Brasil. The seven-point lead exceeds the survey's margin of error of two percentage points.

The poll heard 2,400 voters across Brazil between Sept 3 and Sept 8, according to the technical sheet published by Poder360. The confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that oversees Brazilian elections, under number BR-00251/2026 and cost 15,000 reais, paid by the institute itself.

In the runoff scenario, 11% of respondents said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or vote for neither candidate. Another 3% did not know or did not answer.

Technical tie in the first round

For the first round, Gerp shows a technical tie: Flavio Bolsonaro with 37% and Lula with 34%. Augusto Cury (Avante) has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 5%, Renan Santos (Missao) 4%, Pablo Marcal (PRTB) 2% and Romeu Zema (Novo) 1%.

The survey also measured rejection. Lula is the name 49% of voters say they would not vote for under any circumstances, while Flavio Bolsonaro is rejected by 40%. On the government's record, 41% of respondents approve of Lula's administration and 52% disapprove.

The institute's series shows a steady move toward the senator. On Aug 24, Gerp had a technical tie at 42% to 40; two days later, Flavio Bolsonaro led 47% to 42, according to CNN Brasil. Other pollsters publishing this week show a similar picture: Palver has him ahead 46% to 44, BTG/Nexus 46% to 45, and Meio/Ideia recorded a 46% tie. The first round is set for Oct 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the runoff takes place on Oct 25.