R$ 4.8 billion. That is what was left in Brazil's central government coffers in September, after the month's bills were paid. The figure, released by the National Treasury this week, is the best September balance since 2023 and reverses a shortfall of R$ 14.4 billion recorded a year earlier.
To grasp the size of the result: the leftover equals just over 2% of everything the government collected in the month. It is like a family earning R$ 5,000 finishing September with a little over R$ 100 in its pocket after paying every bill.
Understand
The result is called a primary surplus: it happens when tax revenues exceed government spending, not counting interest payments on the public debt. When the government spends more than it collects, the result is a deficit. A surplus helps slow the growth of the public debt.
According to the Treasury, the improvement came mainly from tax collection, which grew faster than spending. Net revenues, after mandatory transfers to states and municipalities, rose 13.6% in real terms, above inflation, and reached R$ 205 billion in September. The government attributes the gain to economic growth, tax increases announced in recent years and revenues tied to higher oil prices.
On the other side, spending rose 2.4% in real terms to R$ 200.1 billion. The largest pressure came from extraordinary credits, emergency funds outside the regular budget, which grew R$ 9.9 billion because of measures to soften the economic impact of the conflicts in the Middle East. Pension benefits rose R$ 2.1 billion, while discretionary spending, the outlays the government can cut or postpone, fell R$ 8.4 billion.
The figure came in slightly above market expectations. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a surplus of R$ 4.65 billion for September.
Year-to-date accounts are still in the red
The strong September result does not pull 2026 out of the red. From January to September, the central government has an accumulated primary deficit of R$ 90.2 billion, still better than the balance for the same period last year, according to the Treasury.
The official target for this year is a surplus of 0.25% of GDP, roughly R$ 34.3 billion. Under Brazil's fiscal framework, approved in 2023, there is a tolerance band around the target, and the government's own forecast is to end 2026 with a deficit at the edge of that band. If the scenario holds, public accounts will have spent all of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's third term in negative territory.