President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated presidential runoff, with 46% of voting intentions against 41% for his rival. The figures come from an Indexa/Broadcast poll released on Wednesday (26) and registered with the electoral court under code BR-06366/2026.

The five-point lead is wider than the poll's margin of error of 2.2 points in either direction. In that head-to-head matchup, 2% of respondents said they were undecided, 6% said they would not vote and 5% said they would cast a blank or null ballot. Flávio Bolsonaro, a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the opponent who comes closest to Lula in the scenarios tested by the institute.

Other runoff scenarios

According to the survey, Lula would defeat any rival in an eventual second round. Against Romeu Zema (Novo), the governor of Minas Gerais, the president scores 45% to 34%. Against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the governor of Goiás, the result is 44% to 38%. Against Renan Santos (Missão), Lula has 46% to 34%. Depending on the opponent, the president's lead exceeds ten points.

For the first round, the institute tested two scenarios. Without Pablo Marçal (PRTB), a businessman who launched a bid but is currently ineligible, Lula leads with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%, Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4%, and Zema and Augusto Cury at 1% each. With Marçal included, he draws 2%, Flávio slips to 33% and Lula keeps his 39%.

The institute conducted 2,000 telephone interviews between August 20 and 23. The poll was commissioned by Broadcast, the real-time news service of the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.

A Gerp survey released this month put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in a runoff, with 47% to Lula's 42%. The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff will be held on October 25.