President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers Party has 42% of voting intentions in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party has 37%. The figures come from the 14th round of the poll by bank BTG Pactual with the Nexus institute, released on Monday (14). Lula's five-point lead is larger than the survey's margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.

First round

According to Folha de S.Paulo, Lula gained three points from the previous round, when he had 39%. Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rose two points, from 35% to 37%. Writer Augusto Cury (Avante) fell from 9% to 6%. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) rose one point to 5%. Renan Santos (Missão) has 2%, and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) and Samara Martins (UP) stand at 1% each. Blank and spoiled votes total 4%, and 2% of respondents did not know or declined to answer.

The main figures come from the scenario that excludes Pablo Marçal (PRTB). Brazil's top electoral court, the TSE, rejected the influencer's candidacy unanimously on Friday (11), according to Folha. In the unprompted question, where respondents answer without seeing a list of names, Lula has 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro 34%, news site R7 reported.

Runoff

In a simulated runoff between the two leaders, Lula has 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro 46%, a technical tie. In the previous round, the senator was one point ahead, 46% to 45%.

The Nexus institute also tested other opponents for the president. Against Caiado, Lula would win 47% to 41%. Against Zema, 49% to 39%. Against Renan Santos, 49% to 38%. Against Cury, the gap narrows to three points, 45% to 42%, according to R7.

Pollsters interviewed 2,003 voters by phone between Friday (11) and Sunday (13). The confidence level is 95%, and the survey is registered with the TSE under code BR-04076/2026.

The first round of the election is scheduled for October 4, three weeks after this poll was released. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff.