President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, each hold a lead beyond the margin of error in seven states in the first round of Brazil's presidential race. That is the picture from a series of Quaest polls released between Monday (24) and Thursday (27) across 23 states and the Federal District, compiled by G1. In nine other states the two are in a statistical tie, including the country's three largest electorates: São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.
All seven of Lula's clear leads are in the Northeast, his party's traditional stronghold. According to Quaest, the president leads comfortably in Bahia (50% to 17% for Flávio), Maranhão (58% to 20%), Paraíba (50% to 21%) and Alagoas (44% to 29%), and also ahead in Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. Flávio Bolsonaro holds his widest margins in Roraima (54% to 17%), Santa Catarina (45% to 20%), Mato Grosso (43% to 26%), Acre (42% to 25%) and Paraná (41% to 23%), plus leads in Espírito Santo and Rondônia.
A statistical tie where most voters live
The race is open where most of the electorate is concentrated. In Minas Gerais, Flávio has 31% and Lula 30%, within the margin of error, while the state's governor, Romeu Zema (Novo), polls 7% on his home turf. In the Federal District, Lula appears with 28% and Flávio with 26%. G1 reports that São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Amazonas, Amapá and Tocantins also show a statistical tie between the two front-runners.
Goiás is the only state where a third candidate sits numerically on top. Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 32%, in a statistical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro at 27%, with Lula at 20%. According to G1, the margin of error is two percentage points in the São Paulo survey and three points in the others. Quaest has not yet polled Ceará, Pará and Piauí.
What comes next
The first round is scheduled for October 4. Free campaign advertising on radio and TV, a fixture of Brazilian elections, began this Saturday (29), with airtime split among Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado and writer Augusto Cury (Avante). Quaest said it will release a new national poll next week, according to G1, with scenarios expected to test other names in the race.