President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would defeat any rival in a potential runoff in Brazil's 2026 election, according to an Indexa/Broadcast poll released on Wednesday (26), as reported by CartaCapital. His closest competitor is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro: Lula takes 46% of voting intentions against 41% for the senator.

The institute tested four runoff scenarios, and Lula comes out ahead in all of them. His lead ranges from 5 to 12 percentage points depending on the opponent. The numbers:

• Lula: 46% against 41% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL);
• Lula: 45% against 34% for Romeu Zema (Novo), governor of Minas Gerais;
• Lula: 44% against 38% for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), governor of Goiás;
• Lula: 46% against 34% for Renan Santos (Missão).

First round

For the first round, the survey tested two scenarios, one of them including Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who launched a candidacy but is currently ineligible. Lula leads both with 39%, according to CartaCapital. Flávio Bolsonaro comes second, with 34% when Marçal is out of the race and 33% when he is in. Caiado has 5% in both cases, and Renan Santos, 4%. When included, Marçal scores 2%.

Indexa interviewed 2,000 voters by phone between August 20 and 23. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points in either direction. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-06366/2026 and was commissioned by Broadcast, the news wire of the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.

Lula is running for reelection. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the candidate of the PL, his father's party. The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff later that month.