President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 46% of voting intentions in a hypothetical runoff against 45% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), according to a BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (24). With a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, the result amounts to a statistical tie between the two candidates ahead of October's presidential election.
The institute interviewed 2,006 voters aged 16 and over by telephone between August 21 and 23. The survey has a 95% confidence level and was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-09028/2026. According to Poder360, the poll cost R$ 164,888.89 and was paid by Banco BTG Pactual.
Tight race in the first round as well
In the main first-round scenario, Lula appears with 41% of voting intentions, against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 5%, Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) have 3% each, and writer Augusto Cury (Avante) registers 2%. CartaCapital describes that gap as a statistical tie at the edge of the margin of error; Poder360, in turn, stresses that the incumbent leads in both scenarios tested. In the simulation that includes Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who registered his candidacy despite being ruled ineligible until 2032, Lula has 40%, Flávio adds 34%, Caiado keeps his 5% and Marçal debuts at 4%.
The poll also measured rejection rates and government approval. Lula is the most rejected name: 49% of respondents said they would never vote for him, while 48% said the same about Flávio. The government is approved by 48% and disapproved by 49% of voters; 43% rate the administration as bad or terrible, and 35% as good or great.
The survey went into the field after the official start of the campaign and wrapped up interviews on Sunday (23), the same day as the year's first presidential debate, hosted by Band and skipped by Lula, Flávio and Zema. A new national poll, by Instituto Vox Brasil, begins on Tuesday (25) specifically to measure the debate's impact on the race, according to VEJA.