A wave of Quaest polls released on Tuesday and Wednesday (Sept 22 and 23) maps the first round of Brazil's presidential race across 24 states and the Federal District. President Lula of the Workers' Party leads vote intentions in 9 states. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads in 8. The two are in a statistical tie in 8 more, according to the results published by g1, Globo's news portal.
The regional map
Every state where Lula leads lies in the North and Northeast: Alagoas, Amapá, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in Acre, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Roraima and Santa Catarina. The race is a statistical tie in Amazonas, the Federal District, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo and Tocantins.
The widest gaps sit at opposite ends of the map. In Bahia, Lula takes 58% of vote intentions against 23% for his rival, up from 50% to 17% in late August. In Ceará, the president polls 55% to 23%. Acre is the only state where a candidate reaches half of vote intentions: Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% to Lula's 24%, up from 42% in the previous poll. Writer Augusto Cury (Avante) runs third in most states, polling between 4% and 7%.
The big electorates
In the country's two largest electorates, the race sits inside the margin of error. In Minas Gerais, Lula has 35% and Flávio Bolsonaro 30%; CartaCapital reports the institute interviewed 1,506 voters in the state between Sept 19 and 22. In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro has 34% and Lula 31%, according to O Globo; the margin of error there is 2 points. In the Federal District, the score is 33% to 32%.
The margin of error is 3 percentage points in either direction in every state except São Paulo, and the confidence level is 95%. The Minas Gerais survey was commissioned by Globo and registered with the electoral court as BR-07664/2026, according to CartaCapital. Undecided voters range from 5% in Amapá to 14% in Amazonas among the states with published numbers. The Pará poll comes out on Saturday (Sept 26). There will be no Quaest survey in Piauí. In the national Quaest poll released on Monday (Sept 21), Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie.
The first round is scheduled for October 4. To win outright, a candidate needs more than half of the valid votes; otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on October 25.