A wave of Quaest polls released between August 24 and September 4 maps the 2026 presidential race across 25 of Brazil's states plus the Federal District. According to the data, compiled by G1 into a map published on Saturday (5), President Lula of the Workers' Party leads outside the margin of error in nine states, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party leads in seven. The two are in a technical tie in nine more, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the country's three largest electoral colleges.

Broadcaster Globo and its affiliates commissioned the surveys. Margins of error are two percentage points in São Paulo and three points elsewhere, so smaller leads count as statistical ties. There was no poll in the state of Piauí.

Lula is ahead in Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Pará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe, with the widest gaps in Maranhão (58% to 20%), Ceará (54% to 16%) and Bahia (50% to 17%). Flávio Bolsonaro leads in Acre (42% to 25%), Mato Grosso (43% to 26%), Espírito Santo (37% to 30%), Paraná, Rondônia, Roraima and Santa Catarina. The nine ties include Amazonas (38% to 33%), Amapá (36% to 33%) and Minas Gerais, where the senator has 31% against the president's 30%, with Romeu Zema at 7%. Goiás is the only state where a third candidate is numerically ahead: Ronaldo Caiado has 32%, against 27% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a technical tie, with Lula at 20%.

Governor races and the effect on the presidential vote

A Poder360 review of the latest polls registered with the electoral courts found that seven incumbent governors could win outright in the first round on October 4: Tarcísio de Freitas (São Paulo), Jorginho Mello (Santa Catarina), Arthur Henrique (Roraima), Eduardo Braide (Maranhão), Eduardo Riedel (Mato Grosso do Sul), Dr. Furlan (Amapá) and Rafael Fonteles (Piauí). Under Brazil's 1988 Constitution, a candidate needs more than half of valid votes to avoid a runoff.

Among those seven, allies of Flávio Bolsonaro outnumber allies of Lula four to one: Arthur Henrique, Braide, Jorginho and Tarcísio are aligned with the senator, while only Fonteles backs the president. Fonteles also holds the largest lead, 62.4% of vote intentions in Piauí, in an AtlasIntel/Meio Norte poll released on September 3. In Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará and Pernambuco, two candidates are tied near the 50% mark; Poder360 says polarization there can create a kind of "anticipated runoff". The picture has shifted in a week: on September 2 the outlet counted nine governors with wide leads, and Raquel Lyra and Eduardo Paes have since lost that status.

In 2022, 14 states and the Federal District chose governors in the first round. Current polls are registered with the Superior Electoral Court; the Alagoas survey, for instance, heard 804 voters between August 20 and 23, with a three-point margin of error and 95% confidence, according to CNN Brasil. The first round of 2026 is set for October 4.