Less than a week before COP31, the UN climate conference that opens in November in Antalya, Turkey, the new national climate plans submitted by countries point to a cut of just 6% in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. The assessment, which consolidates the nationally determined contributions (NDCs, the climate pledges each country files under the 2015 Paris Agreement), falls far short of what is needed: limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would require a 60% reduction, according to G1.
Even if every pledge is fully delivered, the emissions trajectory remains incompatible with the 1.5°C limit. The analysis says emissions would need to fall about 43% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels, and 60% by 2035. Under current commitments, projections show average global temperatures rising by as much as 3.2°C this century, G1 reports.
The review of NDCs will be one of the main items on the Antalya agenda. The expectation, Folha de Curitiba reports, is that the conference will pressure governments to present more ambitious commitments for the post-2030 period, because current plans fall short of what science recommends. Experts quoted by the outlet warn that the window to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is closing.
Record greenhouse gas levels
The warning about weak pledges came out on the same day the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, reported that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit a new record in 2025: 426.8 parts per million, about 153% of the pre-industrial level of 1750. The 2.8 ppm increase in one year was larger than the average of the past decade. Methane and nitrous oxide also reached unprecedented levels, at 267% and 126% of pre-industrial levels respectively, according to InfoMoney. The WMO will present the data to negotiators at COP31 and warns that a strong El Niño could push concentrations even higher this year by drying out vegetation and making it harder for natural carbon sinks, such as tropical forests, to absorb emissions.
"Every additional part per million matters because it traps extra heat. In practice, we are overloading the ocean and the atmosphere," said Ko Barrett, WMO deputy secretary-general. "This means heatwaves, tropical cyclones and storms are intensifying faster than our historical references have prepared us to face."
The figures arrive one year after Brazil hosted COP30 in Belém, at the edge of the Amazon in Pará state, where countries were pressed to file more ambitious targets for 2035. Brazil holds the rotating presidency of the climate conferences until COP31 opens and arrives in Antalya handing over a set of commitments that remains insufficient: the cuts promised so far add up to one tenth of what would be needed over a decade. What is at stake in November is whether governments turn the NDC review into real cuts or let the gap between promise and practice keep growing.