Pollster Quaest releases on Monday (Sept 7) its third presidential vote intention survey of the year, commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper O Globo. According to Valor Econômico, it is the first round of fieldwork able to measure how the crisis at Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) has affected the race. Interviews began on Thursday (Sept 3) and end this Sunday (Sept 6), with the first round of the election less than a month away.
The fieldwork covers the peak of the confrontation between justices André Mendonça and Alexandre de Moraes. On Tuesday (Sept 1), Mendonça lifted the seal on a court filing that exposed messages exchanged between former banker Daniel Vorcaro, of Banco Master, Moraes, and people linked to the justice and to Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet. On Thursday, Moraes accused his colleague of crimes of responsibility, administrative improbity, abuse of authority and violation of the principle of impartiality, within the inquiry into fake news. On Friday (Sept 4), court president Edson Fachin took over the investigation and gave those involved five days to explain themselves.
The starting point
The previous round, released on Sept 2, shows the baseline the new survey will test. President Lula (Workers' Party) had 37% of first-round vote intentions, against 29% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and 10% for writer Augusto Cury, who had jumped from 2% in the previous measurement. The poll heard 2,004 voters between Aug 30 and Sept 1, with a margin of error of two percentage points and registration BR-07065/2026 with the electoral court (TSE).
In runoff scenarios, it found a statistical tie between Lula, at 42%, and Flávio, at 41%. It was also the first time Quaest tested a head-to-head between the president and Cury: 40% to 34%. Valor reports that the new round will gauge whether the writer's rise holds and will include runoff simulations against Flávio Bolsonaro, Cury, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.
State by state
State-level Quaest surveys commissioned by Globo and its affiliate broadcasters, compiled by g1, show Lula ahead beyond the margin of error in eight states: Alagoas, Bahia, Maranhão, Pará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in seven: Acre, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rondônia, Roraima and Santa Catarina. The two are statistically tied in nine others, including the country's three largest electoral colleges, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. In Maranhão, the president's lead reaches 58% against 20%; in Acre, the senator has 42% against 25%. Goiás is the only state where Caiado is numerically ahead, at 32%, in a technical tie with Flávio, at 27%, with Lula at 20%. In Ceará, a poll commissioned by TV Verdes Mares and released on Friday gave Lula 54% and Flávio 16%.
The new national numbers come out on Monday, Brazil's Independence Day holiday. At the Supreme Court, the five-day deadline set by Fachin has been running since Friday, and the review of the crisis now sits with the court's president himself.