Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, runs ahead of President Lula (PT) in runoff simulations released on Thursday (Sept 24) by two polling firms. Palver puts the senator at 48% against 45% for Lula. Real Time Big Data shows a tighter race, 45% to 44%. According to CNN Brasil and CartaCapital, both results sit within the margin of error and amount to a statistical tie. The first round of Brazil's presidential election is ten days away, scheduled for October 4.
In first-round voting intentions, both pollsters point to a close race. Palver has Lula and Flávio tied at 43% each, with Renan Santos (Missão), leader of the MBL activist group, in third at 8%. Real Time Big Data scores the president at 41% against 37% for the senator.
Methodology
Palver heard 5,000 voters between September 20 and 23 through online recruitment, and the poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-09587/2026. CNN Brasil reports a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction; CartaCapital recorded 2.5 points. The news site jota.info notes that Flávio's runoff edge narrowed from four points to three compared with the previous Palver round, released on September 9.
Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters between September 19 and 23 by phone and through digital recruitment, with a 2-point margin of error and a 95% confidence level. The firm paid for the survey itself and registered it under protocol BR-04202/2026. It also measured vote potential: Lula reaches 49%, adding the 30% who say they would certainly vote for him and the 19% who might; Flávio reaches 47% (24% certain plus 23% possible).
Other scenarios
In the other runoff scenarios tested by Palver, Lula leads Augusto Cury (Avante) 44% to 36% and Renan Santos 44% to 34%, and ties with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 44% to 42% and with Romeu Zema (Novo) at 45% to 43%. In Real Time Big Data, the Lula-Caiado matchup stands at 44% to 44%, and the president runs ahead of Zema (45% to 39%), Renan Santos (44% to 38%) and Cury (44% to 43%).
More polling is expected in the final stretch of the campaign. G1 reports that Datafolha will release a new presidential survey on Thursday (24). If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes on October 4, the runoff takes place on October 25.