A poll released on Wednesday by the institute Palver shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberals (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, statistically tied in the first round of Brazil's presidential race. In a scenario without Pablo Marçal, Lula has 40% of voter intentions against 39% for the senator from Rio de Janeiro; with Marçal in the race, both stand at 40%. The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo called the result a technical tie in its Painel column, and CNN Brasil described a numerical tie, with Lula ahead by a gap within the margin of error.

Renan Santos, of the Missão party, polls at 11% in the scenario without Marçal, and Augusto Cury of Avante has 4%. Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and Marçal score 1% each. Undecided voters account for 1%, and blank or spoiled ballots for another 1%, according to CNN Brasil.

Runoff and government approval

In a simulated runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator leads 46% to 44%. CNN Brasil says the 2-point gap falls within the 3-point margin of error, which makes the race a tie. Blank and spoiled ballots plus abstentions add up to 9% in that scenario, and 1% of voters are undecided.

Matched against other opposition figures, Lula is statistically tied with Caiado (43% to 40%) and with Zema (43% to 42%), and beats Cury (42% to 30%) and Renan Santos (43% to 31%). The same survey measured the government's standing: 57% of respondents disapprove of the way Lula governs, while 42% approve.

Methodology

Palver interviewed 5,000 voters online between September 4 and 7. The margin of error is 3 percentage points in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The institute paid for the poll with its own funds and registered it with the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil's top electoral tribunal, under protocol BR-05420/2026.

Brazilians vote in the first round of the presidential election on October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two face a runoff on October 25.