Former Rio de Janeiro mayor Eduardo Paes, of the PSD party, leads the race for governor of Rio de Janeiro state in every scenario tested by a new poll from the Instituto Paraná Pesquisas, released Tuesday. In the scenario including all candidates, Paes polls at 44.5%, followed by Douglas Ruas of the PL party, who currently presides over the state legislature (Alerj), at 15.5%, and former governor Anthony Garotinho of Republicanos at 11.6%.

Rounding out the field are André Marinho (Novo) with 3.1%, Cyro Garcia (PSTU) with 2.9%, Coronel Busnello (Missão) with 2.3%, Juliete Pantoja (UP) and William Siri (PSOL) with 1.3% each, and Luan Monteiro (PCO) with 0.4%. Blank and null votes total 10.9%, while undecided voters account for 6.3%, according to the poll, which was reported by outlets including CNN Brasil and O Antagonista.

Scenario Without Garotinho

The survey also tested a scenario excluding Anthony Garotinho, an option that gained relevance after Judge Ricardo Cyfer of Rio's 4th Public Treasury Court ordered on August 10 the enforcement of a ruling that strips the former governor of his political rights for eight years. The conviction, for administrative misconduct, stems from accusations that roughly 234 million reais were diverted from the state Health Department during his administration. The sentence was originally issued in 2018 and Garotinho appealed all the way to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), but the judge declared the case final this past Monday. On August 17, Brazil's electoral prosecutors had already asked the Rio de Janeiro Regional Electoral Court (TRE-RJ) to challenge Garotinho's candidacy.

Without Garotinho in the race, Paes rises to 48.3% and Ruas climbs to 18.6%. The remaining candidates poll as follows: André Marinho, 3.8%; Cyro Garcia, 3.6%; Coronel Busnello, 2.7%; William Siri, 1.6%; Juliete Pantoja, 1.4%; and Luan Monteiro, 0.8%. Blank, null and undecided votes combined reach 19.4% in this scenario, according to the poll.

Despite his wide lead, Paes's numbers in Paraná Pesquisas surveys have slipped in recent weeks. A July 31 poll had him at 48.6%, against 11.1% for Ruas and 11% for Garotinho. A month earlier, on July 2, Paes stood at 54.2% against Ruas's 14.6%; in the scenario that included Garotinho, Paes had 50.7%, Ruas 13.8% and Garotinho 9.8%.

Instituto Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,600 voters in person across 58 municipalities in Rio de Janeiro state between August 22 and 24. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll was funded with the institute's own resources and is registered with Brazil's electoral authorities under protocol RJ-02422/2026.