Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads the presidential race in São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, according to a Real Time Big Data poll released on Monday (24). In the first-round scenario, he draws 38% of voting intentions, against 33% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is seeking reelection. The margin of error is two percentage points either way.
Renan Santos (Missão) and businessman Pablo Marçal (PRTB) come next, tied at 7% each. Marçal registered his candidacy despite being barred from public office until 2032, and São Paulo's regional electoral court upheld the sanction on Monday, according to Revista Oeste. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 4%, former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) has 3%, and writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 1%. The remaining candidates tested add up to 1%. Blank and null votes account for 3%, the same share as undecided voters.
In the only runoff matchup tested by the institute, Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 49% against 44% for Lula. Blank and null votes total 3%, and 4% of respondents did not know or did not answer.
The poll also measured rejection rates and the federal government's standing in the state, according to CNN Brasil and Exame. Lula is the most rejected name: 51% of São Paulo voters say they would never vote for him, while 49% say the same about Flávio. The president's administration is disapproved of by 55% of respondents in the state and approved by 41%. For 40%, the administration is bad or terrible; 25% rate it as great or good, and 32% as regular. By voter profile, there is a tie among women at 36% each. Lula performs best among voters over 60 (39%) and those earning up to two minimum wages (43%), while Flávio leads among men (40%) and in the higher income brackets (40%), Exame reports.
A smaller gap than his father's in 2022
The result keeps São Paulo tilted toward the bolsonarista camp, but with a narrower margin than in 2022, InfoMoney notes. In that year's runoff, Jair Bolsonaro beat Lula in the state by 55.23% to 44.77% and won 547 of the 645 municipalities. The 44% now assigned to Lula in the runoff simulation is close to the 44.77% he actually received four years ago; the bigger drop is on the PL side, since Flávio's father topped 55%. Nationally, the picture is different: a Nexus/BTG poll, also released on Monday, puts Lula ahead in the first round with 41% against 37% for Flávio, according to CNN Brasil.
Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters across São Paulo state between August 19 and 22. The self-funded survey has a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, and it is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-06537/2026.