Two state-level polls released this week by the Brazilian pollster Real Time Big Data show contrasting pictures of the presidential race in Minas Gerais and Paraná. In Minas Gerais, Brazil's second-largest electorate, President Lula (PT) has 46% of voting intentions against 44% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a hypothetical runoff, a gap inside the margin of error, according to the newspaper Estado de Minas. In Paraná, in the south of the country, Flávio leads the first round with 44% against Lula's 30%, the portal R7 reported.
In the Minas runoff scenario, 6% of respondents said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot, and 4% did not know or declined to answer. In the first round there, Lula leads with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%. Former governor Romeu Zema (Novo) has 9%, Renan Santos (Missão) has 5% and Pablo Marçal (PRTB) has 4%, while Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Augusto Cury (Avante) register 2% each. The survey interviewed 2,000 voters between August 22 and 26, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, under protocol BR-03147/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Statistically, Lula's two-point edge in the runoff amounts to a technical tie: either candidate could be numerically ahead.
In Paraná, a wide lead for Flávio
The Paraná poll, released on Friday (28), shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% in the prompted first-round scenario, in which respondents are shown a list of candidates. Lula has 30%, and Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal and Ronaldo Caiado are tied at 4% each. Zema has 2% and Augusto Cury, 1%. In the spontaneous survey, with no names offered, Flávio registers 25% and Lula 22%, a technical tie, while 35% say they are undecided. In the projected runoff, the senator would take 52% against the president's 34%. The institute interviewed 1,600 voters between August 24 and 27, with a two-point margin of error, under TSE protocol BR-07171/2026.
The Real Time figures diverge in part from those of Quaest, which polled the same states this week for Globo and its affiliated stations, according to G1. Quaest shows a technical tie in Minas already in the first round (Flávio at 31% and Lula at 30%, against Real Time's 39% to 34%) and a 41% to 23% lead for Flávio in Paraná. The differences reflect distinct methodologies and fieldwork periods. One point the two institutes share is the high share of undecided voters: Quaest puts it at 17% in both states, a bloc that can still shift before the first round on October 4 and the runoff on October 25.
Opinion polls capture the moment the interviews were conducted. Before reading too much into any number, voters can check three things: the margin of error (two points in these surveys, which makes small gaps statistically neutral), the fieldwork dates and the poll's registration with the TSE, searchable on the court's website by protocol number. With free campaign advertising on TV and radio beginning this Friday (28), polling institutes are expected to update these scenarios in the coming weeks.